The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center estimates an over 62% chance of a super El Niño developing between June and August 2026. Climate cycles like El Niño and La Niña intensify the risks of extreme events, destabilizing household economies, threatening food security, and prompting decisions to move.
Climate change is increasingly shaping human movement patterns.
Hydroclimatic stressors ranging from slow‑onset events such as drought and water scarcity to sudden extreme events are causing widespread livelihood losses. Substantial scientific evidence also shows that these are already influencing migration decisions worldwide. At the same time, countries in the Global North, particularly in the United States and across Europe, are tightening immigration and asylum systems, reinforcing restrictive border controls, and limiting access to protection.
These trends create a fundamental contradiction: while climate change increases the likelihood of migration and displacement, migration law and policy are increasingly designed to prevent it. Climate finance remains insufficient, and countries that contribute most to GHG emissions continue to fall short of taking responsibility and supporting adaptation efforts.
The session brings together interdisciplinary perspectives to reflect on how climate change, migration governance, legal systems, and political narratives intersect and often misalign in shaping responses to climate migration.
